ML predictions Phase 4: SARIMA spending forecast with dual confidence bands
Replaces unused Prophet dependency (unrunnable without cmdstan) with SARIMA (statsmodels SARIMAX) as the primary spending forecast algorithm. Strategy: SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1,12) for 12+ months of data, ARIMA(1,1,1) for 6-11 months, Holt-Winters for 3-5 months, simple average below that. Adds 95% confidence bands (1.96σ) alongside existing 80% (1.28σ). Extends forecast horizon from 3 to 6 months and actuals display from 6 to 12 months. Each category now carries an algorithm field surfaced as a badge in the UI. Frontend chart shows both confidence tiers as stacked bar overlays with a 3-month summary grid below. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@ -17,7 +17,6 @@ dependencies = [
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"qrcode[pil]>=8.0",
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"cryptography>=44.0",
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"yfinance>=0.2",
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"prophet>=1.1",
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"statsmodels>=0.14",
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"numpy>=2.0",
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"scipy>=1.14",
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@ -52,6 +51,7 @@ build-backend = "hatchling.build"
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[tool.pytest.ini_options]
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asyncio_mode = "auto"
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asyncio_default_fixture_loop_scope = "session"
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testpaths = ["tests"]
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[tool.hatch.build.targets.wheel]
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