ML predictions Phase 4: SARIMA spending forecast with dual confidence bands

Replaces unused Prophet dependency (unrunnable without cmdstan) with
SARIMA (statsmodels SARIMAX) as the primary spending forecast algorithm.
Strategy: SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1,12) for 12+ months of data, ARIMA(1,1,1)
for 6-11 months, Holt-Winters for 3-5 months, simple average below that.

Adds 95% confidence bands (1.96σ) alongside existing 80% (1.28σ).
Extends forecast horizon from 3 to 6 months and actuals display from
6 to 12 months. Each category now carries an algorithm field surfaced
as a badge in the UI. Frontend chart shows both confidence tiers as
stacked bar overlays with a 3-month summary grid below.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
megaproxy 2026-04-28 10:30:26 +00:00
parent 3b4787d8b9
commit 4572621f5d
4 changed files with 109 additions and 30 deletions

View file

@ -17,7 +17,6 @@ dependencies = [
"qrcode[pil]>=8.0",
"cryptography>=44.0",
"yfinance>=0.2",
"prophet>=1.1",
"statsmodels>=0.14",
"numpy>=2.0",
"scipy>=1.14",
@ -52,6 +51,7 @@ build-backend = "hatchling.build"
[tool.pytest.ini_options]
asyncio_mode = "auto"
asyncio_default_fixture_loop_scope = "session"
testpaths = ["tests"]
[tool.hatch.build.targets.wheel]